Fact Sheet

Conditions Mexican Deportees Will Be Returning To

Economic hardship, the impact of climate change, insecurity and different forms of violence have driven Mexicans to leave their homes and migrate to the United States.

Today, Mexican immigrants are estimated to be the largest group of undocumented persons living in the U.S.

  • In 2022, nearly 70% of all new Mexican permanent residents attained regular status through a family member.
  • In 2022, nearly 5.1 million Mexicans resided in the U.S. without regular status.
  • As of November 2024, there were currently 252,044 undocumented Mexican immigrants with final orders of removal.
  • In FY 2024, the U.S. forcibly removed 87,298 Mexican nationals. Of these, 36,850 were apprehended by Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), while ICE apprehended 42,529, and 7,919 had pending criminal charges.

Some characteristics of the Mexican population in the U.S.:

An estimated 53% of Mexican immigrants in the U.S. arrived prior to 2000, meaning many deportees will return to a country very different from the one they left, and some will face worse social, economic and environmental conditions than when they left. In 2023, half of Mexican migrants in the U.S. who were 25 years and older had less than a high school diploma, limiting their employment opportunities on their return home. Even though, 68% of Mexicans in the US older than 16 were part of the working force, homes with a Mexican head of household received average incomes below those led by U.S. nationals and other nationalities.

Socioeconomic conditions

  • In 2022, the poverty rate was 36.3% and the extreme poverty rate was 7.1%, compared to a poverty rate around 13.0% and extreme poverty rate around 4.0% in the U.S.
  • In 2022, the average quarterly income per household was $66,485 MXN (~$3,000 USD). In 2024, the average quarterly income for full-time workers in the U.S. was $15,496 USD.
  • The Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality on a scale from 0 (absolute equality) to 1 (absolute inequality), was 0.44 in 2023.
  • In 2022, 63.8% of all people aged 20-24 had completed a secondary education.
  • The reported unemployment rate in Q1 2024 was 2.5%. However, participation in the informal economy remains high, registering at 54.5% in Q1 2024. This is troublesome given that informal workers lack employment benefits, tend to make less than those in the formal labor market, and work in unregulated fields.
  • According to the Interamerican Development Bank, in 2024 remittances from the U.S. to Mexico reached $65.1 billion USD. Remittances sent to Mexico are sent to support the basic needs in some of the poorest households.

Security Concerns

  • Mexico has struggled to contain criminal violence. During the Presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024):
    • Around 30,000 people were killed each year.
    • 53,653 people were disappeared.
    • 6,777 people were kidnapped. 
  • In 2023, Guanajuato, Michoacán, and Nuevo León experienced the highest levels of violence. Other states, like Chiapas, Guerrero, and Tamaulipas saw violence intensify as criminal groups compete for smuggling routes.
  • The capture of “El Mayo” Zambada created a power vacuum that has led to fighting between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel and more than 200 disappearances.
  • In Mexico, nearly 10 women and girls were killed every day in 2023 by intimate partners or other family members. These type of crimes largely go unpunished. 
  • In 2023, the country registered 848 femicides and 2,591 homicides where the victims were women. 

Threats of Extreme Climate Events

  • Severe droughts and recent hurricanes, like Otis (2023) and John (2024), have created life-threatening conditions across Mexico. 
  • According to the G20 Climate Risk Atlas, climate change has the potential to cause:
    • Rising sea temperatures contributing to ocean acidification and a decrease in fish catch potential.
    • Longer droughts, affecting infrastructure and agriculture.
    • Increase in frequency and severity of heatwaves, and a decrease in air quality.

Political Climate

Reintegration

  • President Sheinbaum announced the plan “Mexico Embraces You” to assist deported nationals, which includes:
    • Consular assistance and protection for those in deportation proceedings.
    • Reception and support through the creation of care centers along the Mexico-U.S. border.
    • Enrollment in social services and assistance in securing employment.
  • The plan faces several challenges, in particular, budgetary constraints for social safety net programs and the lack of employment opportunities.
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