• The measures announced by President-elect Donald Trump would have negative impacts on Mexico in three areas:some text
  • The deportation of millions of migrants would have negative consequences for the Mexican economy, both in terms of remittances and in the challenge of reintegrating this population. It is estimated that in 2022, there were 4 million undocumented migrants of Mexican origin living in the United States.some text
    • Reintegration would include creating jobs, providing housing, and addressing a possible strain on public services.
    • In 2023, Mexicans living abroad sent an estimated $66.2 billion in remittances back home. Remittances are sent back to some of Mexico’s poorest states and households, and are often used for household necessities and essentials.
    • Trump’s deportation plans would reduce the number of senders and the amount of money flowing back to their communities.
  • Trump has pledged to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican goods. The increase in tariffs would have a devastating impact on Mexican exports to the U.S., which would become more expensive and therefore lead to their reduction.
  • The use of U.S. military power to confront drug cartels inside Mexican territory, which represents a violation of Mexican sovereignty and could result in higher levels of violence on both sides of the border.
• President Claudia Sheinbaum has responded to those announcements firmly in wiring and in her daily press briefings. But she also has other tools and strategies at her disposal:some text
  • She can decrease Mexico’s cooperation on drug trafficking and immigration.
  • She can retaliate and impose tariffs on imports from the United States.
  • She can end tax benefits for U.S. companies operating in Mexico.
  • It can strengthen its cooperation and commercial relationship with China, the United States’ most important rival, who is increasingly seeking to increase its influence in the region.
• President Sheinbaum could also follow the line of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, by:some text
  • Ignoring aggressive rhetoric.
  • Offering cooperation in accepting nationals from other countries who have entered through the U.S. southern border and were returned or expelled from the U.S. 
  • Renegotiating the free trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
• President-elect Donald Trump’s stance ignores that:some text
  • Increased tariffs would make products consumed in the U.S, more expensive, causing inflation.
  • Mexico could in turn impose tariffs on U.S. products, which would affect sectors such as agriculture and industries that use inputs manufactured in Mexico, harming a beneficial, bilateral trade relationship.
  • The need for Mexico’s cooperation in the deportation of its nationals, and of persons of other countries with whom the U.S. does not have agreements to deport its nationals to (Cuba or Venezuela, for example).

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